RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSTANTIATING BUSINESS PROJECTS

Abstract

The article explores current scientific and practical aspects of the methodology for assessing risks that arise in the process of justifying business projects. The growing level of uncertainty in the internal and external environment, the impact of global crises, the instability of financial markets, dynamic changes in legislation, climate and technological challenges necessitate the formation of effective mechanisms for identifying, analyzing and managing risks at the planning stage and making management decisions regarding projects. The risk management methodology, implemented in the project management system, allows you to increase the level of project justification, reduce the likelihood of erroneous investments and contribute to the strategic sustainability of enterprises. The work systematizes the stages of the risk management process in the context of business design: identification, qualitative and quantitative analysis, impact assessment, ranking, selection of response measures and monitoring. The features of using qualitative methods (SWOT, expert assessments, scenario analysis) in combination with quantitative methods (sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo model, decision tree) are considered, which allows achieving a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of risk factors. Special attention is paid to the formation of a risk matrix as a tool for visualizing risk priorities on a scale of probability and impact. The feasibility of using digital tools, such as RiskyProject, @Risk, Microsoft Project, for scenario modeling, automation of assessment and visualization of analysis results is substantiated.
In the process of project implementation, it is proposed to implement a systematic approach to training personnel in risk management and stimulating team interaction, which contributes to high-quality decision-making, prompt response to changes and increased adaptability of project teams. Recommendations are given for regular monitoring of risks, their review throughout the project life cycle and adaptation to environmental dynamics. The results of the study have applied significance for enterprises in various industries and can be used in the process of developing investment projects, business plans, strategic development programs and modernization of management systems.